Various Multipliers

Note: In the following examples the multiplier is the right-hand-side equation without the first component.

y is original output (GDP)

bC is marginal propensity of consumption (MPC)

bT is original income tax rate

bM is marginal propensity to import

Δy is change in output (equivalent to GDP)

ΔaT is change in lump-sum tax rate

ΔbT is change in income tax rate

ΔG is change in government spending

ΔT is change in aggregate taxes

ΔI is change in investment

ΔX is change in exports

 Standard Lump-sum Tax Equation

 

Note: only ΔaT is here because if this is a change in lump-sum tax rate then ΔbT is implied to be 0.

 

 

Standard Income Tax Equation

 

Note: only ΔbT is here because if this is a change in income tax rate then ΔaT is implied to be 0.

 Standard Government Spending Equation

 

Standard Investment Equation

 

Standard Exports Equation

 

Balanced-Budget Government Spending Equation

Δy = ΔG * 1

Δy = ΔT * 1

Statistics

Estimation has found "textbook" values of multipliers such as the value in the above example are overstated. The following tables has assumptions about monetary policy along the left hand side. Along the top is whether the multiplier value is for a change in government spending (ΔG) or a tax cut (-ΔT).

Monetary Policy Assumption

ΔY/ΔG

ΔY/(-ΔT)

Interest Rate Constant

1.93

1.19

Money Supply Constant

0.6

0.26

The above table is for the fourth quarter under which a permanent change in policy is in force.