Various Multipliers
Note: In the following examples the multiplier is the right-hand-side equation without the first component.
y is original output (GDP)
bC is marginal propensity of consumption (MPC)
bT is original income tax rate
bM is marginal propensity to import
Δy is change in output (equivalent to GDP)
ΔaT is change in lump-sum tax rate
ΔbT is change in income tax rate
ΔG is change in government spending
ΔT is change in aggregate taxes
ΔI is change in investment
ΔX is change in exports
Standard Lump-sum Tax Equation
Note: only ΔaT is here because if this is a change in lump-sum tax rate then ΔbT is implied to be 0.
Standard Income Tax Equation
Note: only ΔbT is here because if this is a change in income tax rate then ΔaT is implied to be 0.
Standard Government Spending Equation
Standard Investment Equation
Standard Exports Equation
Balanced-Budget Government Spending Equation
Δy = ΔG * 1
Δy = ΔT * 1
Statistics
Estimation has found "textbook" values of multipliers such as the value in the above example are overstated. The following tables has assumptions about monetary policy along the left hand side. Along the top is whether the multiplier value is for a change in government spending (ΔG) or a tax cut (-ΔT).
Monetary Policy Assumption |
ΔY/ΔG |
ΔY/(-ΔT) |
Interest Rate Constant |
1.93 |
1.19 |
Money Supply Constant |
0.6 |
0.26 |
The above table is for the fourth quarter under which a permanent change in policy is in force.