Uganda’s Economic Growth Trends
Uganda's
economic growth performance since the sixties has been relatively slow compared
to some of the East Asian countries which were at the same level of
development, for example, South Korea and Malaysia (see figure 3.1). Over a
period of nearly 50 years, Uganda's GDP per capita increased from USD 63.8 in
1962 to only USD 506 in 2010. On the other hand, South Korea GDP per capita
increased from USD103 to USD 21, 000 over the same period.
The GDP growth
has varied over the period with the highest average growth experienced between
2005 and 2010 as shown in figure 3.2. Although growth in per capita income has
been slow, the real GDP (billions of Dollars) has been steadily increasing
since 1986 except for period of 1988 to 2002 due to re-basing. Since 2003, the
cumulative growth gradient has been steeper an indication that the country is
in a clear stage of takeoff.
The
main drivers of the growth as depicted in figure 3.3 have been posts and
telecommunications, construction and mining sectors. More recently, the growth
of the telecommunication and mining sectors have been instrumental in the
country's growth largely driven by technology improvements in ICT and
investments in oil and gas sector.
Figure
3. 3: Growth Rates of Key Sectors -20 -100 10 20 30 40 50 1988-1997 1998-2002
2004-2008 2007 2008 2009 2010 Growth Rate (%) Agriculture (crops, livestock and
fisheries) Forestry Manufacturing Hotels and restaurant (Tourism) Mining, ICT
and Construction.
28.
Uganda's trade deficit has been widening despite improvements in the
composition and value of exports. The trend of the trade deficit as a
percentage of GDP is as presented in figure 3.4. The balance of payments has
also been unfavorable with a deteriorating trend in recent years partly due to
low demand for Uganda's exports in advanced economies. These exports are mainly
characterized by primary, low value and non-hi-tech products.